The eye of Hurricane Lane is currently forecast to pass to the south of Big Island later this week. According to the Pacific Hurricane Center, Lane is a category 3 hurricane. Since it will still be in an area of higher sea surface temperatures but experiencing vertical shear, the intensity forecast has a quite of bit uncertainty. The current forecast track has Lane passing south of Big Island on Wednesday or Thursday next week, but weakness in a sub-tropical ridge has created some uncertainty beyond the 72-hour forecast.
Please pray for the hurricane to dissipate before making landfall or to miss the Hawaiian Islands. Also, please pray that the sub-tropical ridge to remain strong and push Lane south of Hawaii. Please pray for people to remain calm and prepare the storm. Please pray for homes and property to be protected from damaging winds and rains.
Here is an update from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/13 kt. The latest forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous track during the 12-36 hour and 96-120 hour time periods. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane will continue to keep the system moving along the same general track during the next 12 hours, but at a slightly slower forward speed during the 24-72 hour time periods. A shift toward the west-northwest will likely begin beyond 72 hours as Lane approaches the western end of the ridge. The forecast models are showing this western end of the ridge will erode due to an upper-level trough digging down northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Due to increasing uncertainty about the strength of the ridge, the model spread has increased dramatically tonight. The changes in the current forecast track were based on nudging toward the latest HWRF and HCCA guidance, as well as the GFEX and TVCN consensus models. A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic sampling in the environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane later today. The valuable data collected during this mission will be available to better initialize the forecast models. The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly, especially during days 4 and 5. This forecast closely follows the IVCN, which shows gradual weakening from 48 through 120 hours. The ocean water temperatures will remain in the 27-28 degrees C range along the forecast track, but there may still be 10 to 15 knots of vertical wind shear through most of the forecast period. Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the track between 72 and 96 hours. If this verifies, this may allow Lane to remain stronger than anticipated beyond day 3. Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity forecast errors can be large.
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