The Central Pacific Hurricane Center reported that Olivia decoupled from its upper level circulation yesterday. TS Olivia has been moving erratically since that; at times moving due South then Southwest and now just north of due West. The storm is currently passing just north of Maui with some rainfall, and there is potential for damaging winds and catastrophic flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Maui and Oahu county with the TS Warnings cancelled for Hawaii and Kauai counties.
Please pray for the storm to move quickly over Maui and Oahu counties. Praise God for the storm decreasing in size and strength. Pray for the wind shear to increase and to rapidly dissipate the Tropical Storm. Please pray for the homes and lives to be protected from damaging winds and heavy rains. Praise God that the islands of Hawaii and Kauai are protected from the tropical storm. Please pray for people to prepare for the storm as it makes it’s approach to Hawaii.
Here is the most recent forecast discussion from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
500 AM HST Wed Sep 12 2018
An explosive overnight development of thunderstorms in Olivia’s eastern semicircle have since moved over the low level circulation center (LLCC), despite westerly vertical wind shear near 25 kt.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates ranged from 2.0/30 kt
to 2.5/35 kt this time around, but velocity data from the WSR-88D
on Molokai indicate 50 kt winds at 5000 feet, and 45 kt at 10000 feet. Using reduction factors typically applied to aircraft data, this supports a surface wind estimate of 40 kt.
Olivia’s motion over the past 18 hours has been erratic, and strongly modulated by the amount of associated deep convection. A faster motion toward the west-southwest was observed when convection dissipated yesterday, with a slower forward speed toward the west-northwest observed with the deeper convection. This is due to the vertical wind shear, with the exposed low cloud swirl steered by low-level trade winds, while the deep convection allows
Olivia’s motion to be increasingly affected by the westerly flow aloft. With the persistent overnight convective burst, the initial motion estimate for this advisory is estimated to be 280/10 kt.
In the short term, Olivia is expected to move toward the west. However, the expectation is that the deep convection will wane later this morning, and Olivia will make a turn toward the west-southwest by this afternoon. After emerging to the west of Maui County this evening, the expectation is that terrain interaction and increasing vertical wind shear will prevent deep convection from persisting over the center. A motion toward the west-southwest is then expected through 36 hours, with the assumption that the LLCC
will be intact after emerging to the southwest of Maui County. GFS guidance indicates dissipation within 48 hours, while the ECMWF carries a surface low through day 5. The official forecast splits the difference, with Olivia devolving to a post-tropical remnant low
by day 3 before dissipation on day 5.
1. Flooding rainfall, high surf, and damaging winds are expected in the warning area. Significant impacts can occur well away from the center, especially when considering that the mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced wind gusts