Hurricane Olivia Update #4- Weakening, direct hit still forecast

HO #42
Please click on the photo for the full 0500 Update from the CPHC

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has forecast Tropical Storm Olivia to continue to weaken, but the current track of the storm takes directly toward the main Hawaiian Islands. TS Olivia is still moving due west over some warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and has continued weakening over night with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH.  The current intensity forecast and track has Olivia making landfall as a Tropical Storm, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Oahu, Maui and Hawaii counties. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauai County.

The pray requests remain the same from the previous update. Please continue to pray for Tropical Olivia to decrease in strength and for the storm to move to the northwest away from the Hawaiian Islands. Pray for the wind shear to increase and to rapidly weaken the Tropical Storm. Please pray for the homes and lives to be protected from damaging winds and heavy rains. The islands of Hawaii and Kauai have sustained heavy flooding already, so more heavy rains there could cause even more damage. Please pray for people to prepare for the storm as it makes it’s approach to Hawaii.

Here is the most recent forecast discussion from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
500 AM HST Tue Sep 11 2018

Hurricane Hunters from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
spent most of the night flying through Olivia, sampling the core as
well the periphery. Maximum flight level winds of 78 kt were
observed in the northwest quadrant fairly early in the evening, but
subsequent observations indicated that Olivia is well below
hurricane intensity. The surface pressure was gradually rising, and
the system exhibited tilt with height, with the low-level center on
the south side of the cold cloud tops seen in satellite.
Additionally, the observed wind field was rather asymmetric, with
winds fairly weak in the southern semicircle. The initial intensity
for this advisory is deemed to be 55 kt, and given current
satellite trends, this may be slightly generous.

The aircraft center fixes add confidence to the initial motion
estimate of 270/9 kt. Olivia is being steered by a mid-level ridge
centered to the distant northeast, but a mid-level ridge building
to the northwest of Olivia will induce a motion toward the west-
southwest later today. Once this occurs, this motion is expected to
persist as Olivia crosses the Hawaiian Islands. The updated track
forecast is very close to the previous, especially over the first
48 hours. In 48 to 72 hours, a low aloft is expected to develop
north of Olivia, and this development is expected to impart a
motion toward the west-northwest on days 4 and 5. The official
forecast is now near the center of the guidance envelope, and is
close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and GFEX. The along-track
differences between the GFS and ECMWF were reduced with the arrival
of the 06Z GFS, adding confidence to the short term forecast track,
which indicates a slightly faster speed of motion than the previous

Moderate shear is expected to continue over the next 48 hours while
SSTs increase to 28C. The shear is expected to induce slow
weakening as indicated by nearly all intensity guidance, with
interaction with island terrain potentially contributing to
weakening as well. After Olivia exits the Hawaiian Islands to the
west in 48 to 72 hours, a cold core low aloft is expected to develop
north of Olivia. By 96 hours the cold core low and Olivia become
vertically stacked, potentially resulting in Olivia becoming
post-tropical. The official intensity forecast indicates this will
occur by day 5, and closely follows IVCN through the bulk of the
Key Messages:

1. Although Olivia is expected to move over the islands as a
tropical storm, it could still bring significantly worse impacts
than recent Hurricane Lane. Those impacts could include intense
flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and large and dangerous surf.

2. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track
and intensity when planning for Olivia. Regardless of the track
that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant impacts
can be expected away from the center. In particular, the
mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of
strongly enhanced wind gusts and rainfall.

HO #4
Please click for the Public Advisory #44 for 0500 9/11/18 from CPHC

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