Hurricane Olivia Update #3- Tropical Storm Warnings Issued

HO #32
Please click on the photo for the full 5:00 AM CPHC update from 9/10/18

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has forecast Hurricane Olivia to weaken to a tropical storm, but the current track of the storm takes directly toward the main Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane Olivia is still moving due west over some marginal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and has re-intensified over night with maximum sustained winds of 85 MPH.  The current intensity forecast and track has Olivia making landfall as Tropical Storm, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Maui and Hawaii counties. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Oahu.

The pray requests remain the same from the previous update. Please continue to pray for Hurricane Olivia to decrease in strength and for the storm to move to the northwest away from the Hawaiian Islands. Pray for the wind shear to increase and to rapidly weaken the Hurricane. Please pray for the homes and lives to be protected from damaging winds and heavy rains. The islands of Hawaii and Kauai have sustained heavy flooding already, so more heavy rains there could cause even more damage. Please pray for people to prepare for the storm as it makes it’s approach to Hawaii.

Here is the most recent forecast discussion from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
500 AM HST Mon Sep 10 2018

Olivia’s eye has been appearing at times this morning. The outflow
pattern remains impressive, so it does not appear to be negatively
impacted by vertical wind shear of around 10 kt. The satellite fix
agencies (JTWC, SAB, and PHFO) provided unanimous subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT estimate
was 4.2/70 kt. Based on all of this information, we are maintaining
the initial intensity at 75 kt for this advisory. Note that an
aircraft flown by the U.S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron is scheduled to sample the inner core and
outer wind field of Olivia starting in a few hours. This will
give us a much better idea of the latest intensity of Olivia once
they arrive.

Olivia continues to move nearly due west with a current motion of
270/9 kt. This motion is being induced by a deep layer ridge to the
north and northwest of the tropical cyclone. During the next 12
hours or so, the ridge is expected to strengthen and build southward
ahead of Olivia, forcing the tropical cyclone to shift toward a
west-southwest track. This motion is expected to continue through
day 3. The track guidance appears have slightly more spread through
72 hours, especially from 36 to 72 hours. The spread is even greater
during days 4 and 5. The current forecast track is very close to the
previous, except it has been nudged to the right and is slightly
slower during the first 72 hours. Little change has been made in the
day 4 and 5 positions. This closely follows the latest TVCE, FSSE,
GFEX and HCCA guidance. Again, since the is a wider spread in the
track guidance, we want to emphasize the uncertainty in our track
forecast. It is important to NOT focus on the exact forecast track
of Olivia’s center across the islands. A slight deviation to the
right or left can bring vastly different weather hazards to any
islands that are directly impacted by this potentially damaging
tropical cyclone.

Vertical wind shear remains relatively weak in the vicinity of
Olivia. Water temperatures, as well as ocean heat content values,
are expected to increase along the forecast track. Therefore, Olivia
will likely remain a hurricane through 36 hours. After that,
increasing vertical wind shear is forecast to take its toll on
Olivia, so that it may be a strong tropical storm within 48 hours.
Additional slow weakening is expected to persist during days 3
through 5. The latest forecast is close to the IVCN and CTCI. Note
that based on the latest track and intensity along with the wind
speed probabilities, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for
the Big Island of Hawaii and the islands of Maui County.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and
intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on the main Hawaiian
Islands east of Kauai should continue preparing for the likelihood
of direct impacts from this system today and early Tuesday. Those
impacts could include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds,
large and dangerous surf, and storm surge.

2. Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes
as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far
from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii
can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

HO #3
Please click on the photo for the 9/10/18 5:00 AM Public Advisory from CPHC
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