TROPICAL STORM LANE #13

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Please pray for the storm to move quickly to the west. Praise God for the storm weakening so quickly. For now Hawaii, Maui, and Oahu county are under tropical storm warnings. Please read the latest forecast discussion from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 43…Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

It took awhile…but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A very helpful AMSR2 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane at 2259 UTC
showed the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and mid level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of deep convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too
generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern
and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current
intensity.

The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain until we have more time to examine this change. The low level circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low
level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I’ve seen it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane departs.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center.
Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings.

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