Hurricane Lane Update #9- 11:00 AM Lots of Uncertainty in the Current Forecast

HL #9
Please click the photo to see that latest public advisory

Everything from the previous update is still true at this time. The current track of the storm has changed little from the 5:00 AM update,  the storm has weakened very little from the previous forecast. The maximum sustained winds at this time are ~132 MPH, so Lane is still a Major Hurricane at this point. The forecaster does not have any confidence in the exact path and weakening of the storm.

Please pray for the wind shear to continue to weaken Hurricane Lane and that a ridge developing to the south east of Lane will not push it more northward. Pray for the trade winds to begin pushing Lane to the west sooner than forecast. Please pray for the heavy rains to move away from the main Hawaiian Islands, especially Hawaii Island.  Please pray for people to have peace, to heed the watches and warnings, and to prepare the storm and pray for homes and property to be protected from damaging winds and rains.

Here is the most recent forecast discussion from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. (08/23/2018 1100 UPDATE)

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
 
Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning, 
even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed 
by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite 
imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a 
relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four 
centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and 
SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for 
this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative. 

This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.

 
KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
the center.
 
2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.
 
3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.
 
4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.
HL #92
Please click the photo for CHPC page for updates about Hurricane Lane
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