The eye of Hurricane Lane’s current forecast track has shifted further to the right, increasing the threat of a direct hit to the Hawaiian Islands. The storm will also slow down as it starts to move more to the West-Northwest as a mid-level ridge begins to weaken. The factors will likely mean high winds and a lot of rain with potential for flooding. The percentage of tropical storm force winds has increased to 30-60% for all of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Please continue to pray for the hurricane to dissipate before making landfall or to miss the Hawaiian Islands. The other prayer needs remain the same, so please pray that the sub-tropical ridge to remain strong and push Lane south of Hawaii. Please pray for people to remain calm, heed the watches and warnings, and prepare the storm. Please pray for homes and property to be protected from damaging winds and rains.
Here is the latest forecast discussion from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Lane has quite an impressive satellite signature this evening, with
a solid ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding a warming eye.
Aircraft from NOAA and the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
have been flying through lane at 8 to 10 thousand feet respectively
this evening, and are confirming that Lane is a powerful hurricane
that has intensified since their last visit this morning. The
central pressure has dropped roughly 10 mb, peak SFMR winds were 140
kt with max flight level winds near 128 kt, and an eyewall
dropsonde recorded winds near 139 kt. Based on a blend of the
aircraft data, the initial intensity for this advisory is increased
to 130 kt, maintaining Lane as a powerful category 4 hurricane.
The initial motion for this advisory is 280/10 kt, with Lane
continuing to be steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the
north. Over the next couple of days, Lane is expected to reach the
western periphery of the ridge, allowing the cyclone to gain
latitude. Some increase in the clustering of the track model
guidance has occurred this cycle, with the ECMWF no longer on the
left hand side of the envelope. All of the reliable model guidance
now indicates that Lane will begin to make a gradual turn to the
west-northwest by Wednesday, with a gradual slowing in forward
speed. A more decided turn toward the northwest is expected
Thursday, with relatively slow-moving Lane now forecast to move
dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the
west is expected in the later forecast periods, with forecast models
indicating a weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The updated track forecast lies between
the previous official forecast and the HCCA.
The weakening in the latter forecast periods appears to be related
to an increase in vertical wind shear, but it also appears that
forecast models are expecting interaction with island terrain to
interrupt the low-level wind flow into Lane. Water temperatures
along the forecast track will be sufficiently warm to support a
major hurricane, and thus any significant weakening before Lane
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will likely be due to shear.
With shear expected to be minimal in the short term, subtle
intensity fluctuations associated with inner-core dynamics will
likely lead to little overall change in intensity. The later
forecast periods anticipate an increase in shear as Lane will lie
between the ridge to the east and trough aloft to the northwest of
the main Hawaiian Islands, and the updated intensity forecast has
been nudged upward in the short term due to recent trends and
follows the previous official forecast in the latter forecast
periods, close to the IVCN consensus.
The uncertainty in the track forecast necessitates that interests in
the Hawaiian Islands continue to closely monitor Lane the next
couple of days. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast
track, as impacts from Lane extend well away from its center.