Hurricane Lane Update #1- Some forecast uncertainty

 

The eye of Hurricane Lane is currently forecast to pass to the south of Big Island later this week. According to the Pacific Hurricane Center, Lane is a category 3 hurricane. Since it will still be in an area of higher sea surface temperatures but experiencing vertical shear, the intensity forecast has a quite of bit uncertainty. The current forecast track has Lane passing south of Big Island on Wednesday or Thursday next week, but weakness in a sub-tropical ridge has created some uncertainty beyond the 72-hour forecast.

Please pray for the hurricane to dissipate before making landfall or to miss the Hawaiian Islands. Also, please pray that the sub-tropical ridge to remain strong and push Lane south of Hawaii. Please pray for people to remain calm and prepare the storm. Please pray for homes and property to be protected from damaging winds and rains.

Here is an update from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/13 kt. The latest
forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the right of the
previous track during the 12-36 hour and 96-120 hour time periods. A
large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane will continue to keep
the system moving along the same general track during the next 12
hours, but at a slightly slower forward speed during the 24-72 hour
time periods. A shift toward the west-northwest will likely begin
beyond 72 hours as Lane approaches the western end of the ridge. The
forecast models are showing this western end of the ridge will
erode due to an upper-level trough digging down northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands. Due to increasing uncertainty about the strength
of the ridge, the model spread has increased dramatically tonight.
The changes in the current forecast track were based on nudging
toward the latest HWRF and HCCA guidance, as well as the GFEX and
TVCN consensus models. A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic
sampling in the environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane
later today. The valuable data collected during this mission will be
available to better initialize the forecast models. 
 
The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly,
especially during days 4 and 5. This forecast closely follows the
IVCN, which shows gradual weakening from 48 through 120 hours. The
ocean water temperatures will remain in the 27-28 degrees C
range along the forecast track, but there may still be 10 to 15
knots of vertical wind shear through most of the forecast period.
Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a
local maximum along the track between 72 and 96 hours. If this
verifies, this may allow Lane to remain stronger than anticipated
beyond day 3.
 
Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
forecast errors can be large.

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